Comparing Tariff Impacts on Ocean Congestion and Rates
By Shana M Mamay
Déjà vu? Ocean congestion and spikes are the result of new tariffs. In 2018, tariffs were implemented during President Trump’s first term. How did the 2018 impact on ocean rates and service compare to the new tariffs of 2025? We will compare the policies of each program and attempt to predict future disruptions based on past learnings. We will offer shippers concrete strategies to manage the planned volatility. With tariffs reshaping global trade, understanding these parallels and differences is critical for supply chain resilience.
2025 Tariffs Are Broader
In 2018, tariffs targeted $380 billion in imports, primarily Chinese goods, under Section 301 (25% on select products) and Section 232 (25% on steel, 10% on aluminum). Importers front-loaded shipments to beat tariff deadlines, driving a 70% spike in ocean freight rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast by November. Congestion surged at ports like Long Beach, with vessel dwelling times doubling to 5-7 days due to stockpiling. Service reliability plummeted, with schedule adherence dropping to 65% as carriers struggled with capacity. However, impacts were short-lived, with rates stabilizing by mid-2019 as trade adjusted to new sourcing from Vietnam and Mexico.
In 2025, tariffs are broader, affecting $2.3 trillion in imports (71% of U.S. goods imports), including a 10% universal tariff and up to 54% on Chinese goods. Front-loading again spiked demand, pushing spot rates 15% higher on Far East to U.S. East Coast routes by April. Congestion is less severe, with port wait times up 20% (2-3 days), thanks to improved terminal automation. Service reliability, however, remains strained, with only 60% of sailings on schedule, worsened by carriers blanking 17% of Transpacific capacity to manage overstocking. Unlike 2018, 2025’s tariff uncertainty, exacerbated by a 90-day tariff reduction to 30% on Chinese goods, has prolonged rate volatility, with shippers hesitant to commit to long-term contracts.
2018 Tariffs Were Narrower
Key differences include scale and duration. The 2018 tariffs were narrower, impacting 15% of imports, and resolved faster as supply chains pivoted. In 2025, universal tariffs and retaliatory measures (e.g., Canada’s 25% on U.S. goods) create sustained trade friction, risking a 0.7% drop in U.S. ocean import volumes. Conversely, 2025 benefits from better port infrastructure, mitigating congestion compared to 2018’s bottlenecks. Both periods show shippers’ reliance on front-loading, inflating costs and disrupting service.
Shippers should diversify sourcing, lock in flexible contracts, and use data analytics to predict rate trends. CPC Consultants’ expertise in market analysis and contract negotiation helps clients navigate tariff-driven spikes, ensuring cost control and service stability.
Contact CPC Consultants for a tariff impact assessment to optimize your ocean freight strategy. Let us safeguard your supply chain.